Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
